Still As Life

I have come to the conclusion that it is in fact going to flood in Lismore and I am not going to be able to get back to Brisbane at least before mid next week. Just as well I wasn't planning on leaving until then anyway.

It has been raining and miserable for the past week and a half, and this week in particular it has come in quite heavy. For anyone that doesn't know, I was down at Corindi Beach near Woolgoolga on Wednesday and came back to Lismore on Thursday.

On the way down on Wednesday it was raining just enough to be a pain but not enough to really need windscreen wipers as frequently as the slowest setting.

The weather had actually fined up when I got down there and it was clear through to about 10:30pm when it started bucketing down and kept it up all night. It eased off a bit in the morning, but on the way back up to Lismore it was pretty obvious it had been raining pretty heavy up here.

I took the Casino route to Grafton, through the Summerland Way, rather than taking the Pacific Highway down because the Highway was near continuous traffic, whereas the Summerland Way was practically nothing, I could count the cars I saw on the way down and back on my hands.

Coming back up though, there was a 10km strip, about 5km's either side of revheads where the road was probably only 10cm above the water, in some sections it was just about to go over.

Going through Casino, the Richmond River was obviously quite swollen and higher than normal, but it didn't look like there was much chance of it causing any major flooding there without a lot more heavy rain. Once I got to Lismore and crossed the Richmond River there though, it was another story. The water was already up over the banks. It wasn't yet high enough to be affecting anything, it was just over the banks.

I've been watching the flood warnings for Lismore though and they have been suitably vague and the complete opposite of useful. Around lunch time today though, we went for a little drive over the Richmond and Wilson rivers where the converge in Lismore, and the Wilson was already starting to flood North Lismore. After they converge, the Richmond has gotten a reasonable way up the banks of the CBD and I suspect the flood gates will have been closed by now.

According to the latest flood warning from 10:41pm:

River Height Predictions

Lismore  - exceed 8.0 metres AHD around 6.00 am tomorrow morning
          [5/1/2008] with moderate flooding.
        - with forecast rainfall reach 8.5 metres AHD around
          12.00pm tomorrow [5/1/2008].
        - further rises are possible with more heavy rain.
Wiangaree - exceed 13.5 metres around 3.00 am tomorrow morning
          [5/1/2008] with minor flooding. 
Kyogle    - exceed major flood level [16.0 metres] around 10am
           tomorrow [5/1/2008] morning.
Casino   - exceed minor flood level [9.2 metres] tomorrow
           [5/1/2008] night.
Coraki   - Exceed moderate flood level [5.0 metres] Sunday [6/1/2008]
Bungawalbyn Junction
        - Exceed moderate flood level [4.5 metres] Sunday [6/1/2008]
         

River heights on Fri 04/01/2008 were:

RICHMOND R AT WIANGAREE             10.75m steady         at  851pm Fri 04/01/08
RICHMOND R AT KYOGLE                14.36m steady         at  848pm Fri 04/01/08
RICHMOND R AT CASINO [DNR]           9.31m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
EDEN CK AT DOUBTFUL                  9.81m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
SHANNON BROOK AT YORKLEA             5.72m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
LEYCESTER CK AT ROCK VALLEY          7.53m rising         at 1001pm Fri 04/01/08
GOOLMANGAR CK AT NIMBIN              5.31m steady         at 1004pm Fri 04/01/08
BACK CK AT BENTLEY                   9.54m rising         at 1003pm Fri 04/01/08
TERANIA CK AT THE CHANNON            5.46m steady         at 1004pm Fri 04/01/08
COOPERS CK AT REPENTANCE             2.34m falling        at 1003pm Fri 04/01/08
WILSONS R AT NASHUA                  1.58m steady         at  954pm Fri 04/01/08
COOPERS CK AT CORNDALE               8.10m steady         at 1003pm Fri 04/01/08
WILSONS R AT ELTHAM                  9.24m steady         at 1003pm Fri 04/01/08
WILSONS  R AT WOODLAWN [m AHD]       8.12m steady         at  955pm Fri 04/01/08
LEYCESTER CK AT TUNCESTER [m AHD]    8.84m falling        at 1001pm Fri 04/01/08
WILSONS R AT LISMORE [m AHD]         7.49m rising         at  956pm Fri 04/01/08
RICHMOND R AT CORAKI                 3.58m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
MYRTLE CK AT RAPPVILLE               1.77m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
RICHMOND R AT BUNGAWALBYN            3.14m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
RICHMOND RIVER AT WOODBURN           2.26m rising         at  845pm Fri 04/01/08
 

So this given that Kyogle is upstream from Lismore and it is at major flood level, and all of that water has to pass through Lismore along with all the other water. The flood levy is 9m high, the river is meant to be up at 8m by tomorrow morning at 6am. From where I'm sitting though it sounds like its raining heavy enough to jump up more than the 50cm by 6am given all of the water flowing down the river as well. I'm no expert, but I've been in Lismore for more floods than I remember and it always comes up quicker than expected. After all, on the flood warning prior to this one it was only expected to reach minor flooding in Lismore by the time this one was released. According to this one it's reached moderate flooding.

As much of a pain as it will be for people in the CBD if it does go over the levy, I kind of have to admit, I would like to see it happen. It got so close last flood season, it was within a foot of the top of the wall from memory. Parts of the CBD will flood anyway because the flood drains will back up like they always do, its just not as bad since the river can't run straight into the city anymore.

Ah wells, shall see how the prospects are going in the morning.

Have a good one,

Matt

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